Data as of August 2026 | Sources: Edahn Golan, Forbes China, Securities Times, Eastmoney
Key Findings
Lab-grown diamonds are shifting from a single bridal category to a dual-engine of "bridal consumption + AI computing". Price declines are slowing, but oversupply persists, and the industry is entering a value-reconstruction period.
1. Price Trends: Declines Slowing, Inflection Signals Emerging
Wholesale Price YoY Changes
| Category | 2026 Q1 YoY | 2025 Same Period |
|---|
| Lab-grown finished wholesale | -14% | Over -40% |
| 3-carat round | -28% | Over -40% |
| 1-carat round | -15% | — |
Retail Prices (1-carat high quality)
| Time | Price (CNY) | Note |
|---|
| 2020 | ~8,000 | Early period |
| 2026 | ~3,500 | Retail |
| Shenzhen Shuibei wholesale | 1,800-3,500 | Loose stone |
Inflection signal: From March 2026, multiple upstream manufacturers announced price increases (equipment + raw materials + exchange rate costs). Mainstream listings have removed SI clarity grades, shifting toward higher color and clarity products.
2. Global Production Capacity
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Global lab-grown rough capacity | ~40 million carats |
| China's share | 63% (25.2 million carats) |
| Henan Zhecheng annual output | Over 6 million carats |
| Production cycle | ~2 weeks (vs billions of years for natural) |
3. AI Computing as Second Growth Curve
| Company | Progress |
|---|
| Yellow River Cyclone | 8-inch diamond heat sink line in production |
| Power Diamond | Semiconductor heat sink project Phase 1 in production |
| Sifangda | Diamond heat sinks in small-batch supply |
- In February 2026, Nvidia announced next-gen GPUs will use "diamond composite + liquid cooling"
- Diamond's high thermal conductivity makes it key for chip cooling
Capital Market Performance
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Lab-grown diamond index YTD gain | 98.98% |
| Sifangda / Huifeng / Yellow River Cyclone / Power Diamond | All up over 100% YTD |
4. Lab-Grown vs Natural Diamonds
| Dimension | Lab-Grown | Natural |
|---|
| 3-carat flawless (US market) | Under $4,000 | ~$57,000 |
| 1-carat ring | ~4,000 CNY | ~10x more |
| Positioning | High value mass consumption | High-end sentiment & collection |
Natural Diamond Pressure
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Production (last 4 years) | -20% (120M → 98M carats) |
| Cumulative price decline | -50% |
| DIAMINDX (Aug 2026) | Record low |
| US couples choosing lab-grown for engagement | 61% |
5. Supply-Demand Structure Risks
- Oversupply persists: global oversupply keeps downward price pressure
- Strong end demand: 2026 Q1 sales grew double digits, stable average order value
- Inventory risk: US retail stores facing lab-grown inventory buildup; consignment model amplifies bullwhip effect
- Consumer tendency: larger carat or higher specs within fixed budget
Sources
- [Forbes China: Lab-Grown Diamond Price War](https://forbeschina.com/fga/71543)
- [Securities Times: Lab-Grown Diamonds Dual Track](https://stcn.com/article/detail/3948003.html)
- [Eastmoney: Natural Diamond Index Halved in Four Years](https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608123839153052.html)