Jewelry Industry Report, November 2026: Gold Demand, Diamond Sizes and Export Trends

Information available as of November 7, 2026 | For jewelry manufacturers, buyers, brands and cross-border businesses

The latest public releases suggest that change in the jewelry industry is occurring mainly within product categories and price bands, rather than through a synchronized recovery across the market. Spending on gold jewelry has edged up while physical consumption has declined; natural diamond prices vary by size; and growth in Indian exports is concentrated in selected studded jewelry, silver jewelry and lab-grown diamond categories. Business decisions need to consider sales value, physical volume, product mix and inventory together.

Executive summary

Demand: Global gold jewelry consumption reached 312.9 tonnes in the third quarter, down 17% year on year, while spending rose 2% to US$43 billion. Changes in revenue and physical sales volume should be assessed separately. [1]

Supply and trading: In October, the asking-price index for 0.30-carat natural round diamonds fell 5.5%, while the 3-carat index rose 0.9%. Indian exports of studded gold jewelry increased 31.31% by value from April through September, while plain gold jewelry exports declined 8.81%. An overall jewelry-market trend cannot substitute for analysis by category. [2][4]

1. Global gold jewelry demand adjusts to elevated prices

Gold jewelry consumption shows a clear divergence between value and volume. The World Gold Council’s third-quarter report, released on November 3, shows that global consumption fell from 376.4 tonnes a year earlier to 312.9 tonnes, a decline of 17%. Spending nevertheless increased 2% to US$43 billion. Higher gold prices lifted spending while making the same weight of jewelry less affordable for consumers. [1]

Source: World Gold Council

Consumption in mainland China fell from 84.1 to 65.7 tonnes, while India declined from 125.0 to 99.9 tonnes, decreases of 22% and 20%, respectively. These figures measure the weight of gold jewelry consumed. They do not measure changes in customer numbers, units purchased or total jewelry-industry revenue. Taxation, the economic environment and consumer confidence also affect the Chinese market, so the decline in demand should not be attributed entirely to gold prices.

Quarter-on-quarter improvement can coexist with year-on-year weakness. Global gold jewelry consumption rose 12% from the second quarter but remained below its year-earlier level. Seasonal patterns and market timing affect sequential quarterly comparisons; a single-quarter rebound is not sufficient evidence of a sustained industry recovery.

Implications for product development and retail

The World Gold Council identifies consumer trends toward lighter-weight jewelry and lower gold purity. Manufacturers and brands can develop lighter designs within a fixed budget, emphasizing design, comfort and craftsmanship while clearly identifying materials and fineness. Options should be compared on selling price per item, gross margin, repair rates and stock turnover. Lower weight alone does not guarantee better profitability.

Retail reviews should track sales value, grams sold, unit sales and average transaction value together. If revenue growth mainly reflects higher prices while units or grams decline, retailers should examine conversion rates and inventory turnover before expanding purchases.

2. Natural diamond prices diverge by size

Supply-demand pressure is more pronounced in smaller natural diamonds. Rapaport’s October data, released on November 3, show that the RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI) for 0.30-, 0.50- and 1-carat round diamonds fell 5.5%, 2.3% and 0.9%, respectively, while the 3-carat index rose 0.9%. Opposing movements within the same month mean that procurement and quotations need to be assessed for comparable qualities and sizes. [2]

Source: Rapaport

Inventory growth provides an important clue to pressure on smaller stones. Inventory of 0.30-carat round diamonds in the relevant quality range on the Rapaport platform increased 165% between June 1 and November 1. At the same time, the index for that size was still up 8.8% year to date. An October decline therefore should not be described as a continuous decline throughout the year. Price statements must identify the comparison period.

For buyers, index movements provide context for quotations rather than a discount that can be applied directly. Negotiations still need to account for cut, color, clarity, certification, shape, fluorescence and payment terms. The inventory figures cover the relevant platform and quality range, not the world’s entire diamond inventory.

Assess lead times alongside stocking decisions

Rapaport reports that Indian factories plan to close for 15 to 30 days around Diwali on November 8. Orders scheduled for delivery around the holiday should be checked against each factory’s actual closure and reopening dates, work-in-progress status and logistics arrangements. Industry holiday information is not a substitute for an individual supplier’s delivery commitment.

In practice, businesses can separate replenishment from additions to speculative stock. For existing customer orders, prioritize securing the required specifications and delivery dates. For goods without a confirmed buyer, phase purchases according to turnover, gross margin and working-capital requirements. A one-month price decline alone is not a sufficient reason to expand inventory.

3. Brands adjust materials and product strategies

Pandora’s latest announcement offers one example of developments in mass-market jewelry. On November 4, the company reported third-quarter organic growth of 6% and like-for-like growth of 4%. It narrowed its full-year organic growth guidance from 0%–3% to 2%–3%, raising the lower end while leaving the upper end unchanged. This is a narrowing toward the upper end of the original range, not an increase in the growth ceiling. [3]

Profitability also needs to be assessed separately from one-off items. Pandora’s third-quarter EBIT margin was 15.9%, including a 370-basis-point benefit from a one-off tariff refund. The company said its underlying margin was broadly flat year on year. Looking only at the reported margin could overstate the improvement in recurring operations.

On materials, Pandora is expanding its platinum-plated jewelry test from the Netherlands to the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, with a transition planned to begin in 2027. The broader test indicates that the brand is evaluating a new materials approach. It does not establish that the change has been implemented across all markets or that consumer acceptance has been fully demonstrated. [3]

Manufacturers should focus on verifiable product capabilities

For suppliers, a materials solution must perform across appearance, durability, compliance and cost. Before taking on plating or alternative-material projects, manufacturers should verify the base metal, plating thickness, wear and allergy-related testing, responsibility for repairs and target-market labeling requirements. A brand’s test is a demand signal, not a reason for every factory to retool immediately.

4. Indian export growth is concentrated in selected categories

The recovery in total export value masks substantial differences among categories. Citing the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), IBEF reported on October 15 that India’s gem and jewelry exports reached US$2.95 billion in September, up 9.43% year on year. Cumulative exports from April through September totaled US$14.30 billion, up 3.07%. The monthly growth rate and the six-month cumulative growth rate should not be used interchangeably. [4]

Sources: IBEF citing GJEPC · The Economic Times Jewellery

Over the six-month period, exports of studded gold jewelry increased 31.31% by value, silver jewelry rose 23.10%, and polished lab-grown diamonds rose 17.08%. Plain gold jewelry declined 8.81%, while cut and polished natural diamonds declined 6.96%. These results indicate a divergence in export composition. However, export value is also influenced by unit prices, product mix, exchange rates and destination mix, so it cannot substitute for sales volume or profit data.

For Chinese jewelry manufacturers and cross-border businesses, Indian data can help identify changes in competition and demand. Growth in studded gold and silver jewelry warrants further testing against target customers’ inquiries, price bands, design preferences and local sales data. India’s export performance does not imply that Chinese factories will achieve the same growth in comparable products.

Validate orders before acting on product-selection signals

A more measured approach starts with the target market and customer type, then compares landed cost, minimum order quantities, development time and after-sales standards at equivalent quality levels. Combining small-batch product tests with repeat purchases, returns and net margins can help businesses avoid making large commitments to a category based on a single industry growth rate.

5. Business implications and indicators to watch

The clearest current industry pattern is structural adjustment. The divergence between gold jewelry spending and weight, differences among natural diamond sizes, and uneven performance across Indian export categories all require companies to translate broad market views into specific products and customers. Near-term priorities should include affordable price bands, dependable delivery and inventory turnover.

Three indicators worth monitoring

First, the relationship between gold jewelry value and volume. Track whether revenue, grams, units and transaction prices move together, and assess demand alongside footfall and conversion. Second, diamond prices and inventories by size. Compare actual quotations, transactions and stock age for equivalent qualities rather than treating an asking-price index as a purchase price. Third, the persistence of export growth. Review the next destination and category breakdowns to see whether growth continues and whether it is accompanied by improved profitability.

Methodology and limitations

This report draws on information available as of November 7, 2026. Its principal sources are releases from the World Gold Council, Rapaport and Pandora. Indian trade figures are taken from IBEF’s reporting of GJEPC data and cross-checked against relevant trade reporting. Charts are redrawn from the cited figures; data from different periods are not combined into a single-day market snapshot. Chart 1 compares gold jewelry consumption volumes; year-on-year percentages quoted in the text follow the source’s rounding, Chart 2 shows monthly changes, and Chart 3 shows six-month cumulative year-on-year changes.

Business recommendations are analysis based on public information, not forecasts of any individual company’s profits or orders. Reference photographs should be read with the dates and sources stated in their captions. No on-site company research was conducted, and the report does not make definitive predictions about future gold, natural diamond or lab-grown diamond prices.

Sources

[1] World Gold Council. Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026: Jewellery. November 3, 2026.

[2] Rapaport. Prices of Smaller Diamonds Decline as Inventories Grow. November 3, 2026.

[3] Pandora. Third-quarter trading update and full-year guidance. November 4, 2026.

[4] IBEF. India’s Gem and Jewellery Exports Continue to Grow. October 15, 2026.

[5] The Economic Times Jewellery. September Gems and Jewellery Trade Gains on Gold and Lab Grown Demand. Cross-check of the Indian export reporting period.